A sloppy track and a bunch of good horses that have never run on a sloppy track. if you're looking for betting advice I've got nothing for ya. This is honestly a deal where I have no idea.
Generally... in these situations I just say throw out the track factor... because you can't possibly predict it anyway. So... I guess that means Orb. When in doubt... go with the best horse in the field.
Called it. Turns out Orb's a mudder. He had a great trip. Seeing him kick coming out of the last turn was beautiful. He doesn't have the devastating deep kick that Big Brown had... and he looked like he was running out of gas at the end. I don't see Orb winning the Triple Crown... but man would I love to see him prove me wrong.