Friday, March 01, 2013

The Great Inflation Debate: The Trap Unsprung... Mostly

Money is the general medium of exchange, the thing that all other goods and services are traded for, the final payment for such goods and services on the market. – Rothbard

It becomes readily apparently that Vox has decided to very politely insult me.  Curious.. Cruelty artists are not often known for their subtlety.  Regardless... insult it is. That is what you call it when a skilled opponent opens up a chess match by going for a 3 move check mate.  The insinuation is you may fall for it. 

Well thanks mate... Why didn't ya just accuse me of licking the window of the short bus all the way to the Midvail Academy of the Mentally Challenged?

You may be wondering what all of this maneuvering is about.  If you’ve read Return of the Great Depression (and you should dammit) you know that Vox’s depressionist case is based on debt disappearing.   All is not totally lost for him if debt doesn’t count as money… but it complicates matters for him considerably.  If he can just show that debt is money and debt is disappearing… then he is in very good shape indeed.  If he can’t show debt is money… he can still make an effective case… it is just harder.

Ever the war gamer… Vox is trying to take the high ground.  He knows it doesn’t win him the battle… but this amounts to Getting There First with the Most.

I hope it does not surprise the reader when I wholly reject Vox’s proposed question… as he has deliberately chosen two descriptions of money, both of which allow him to demonstrate that debt can be money in those terms.   No matter which I choose… Vox can make a very logically sound case that debt meets all the qualifications…. And thus… is money.  Heads Vox wins.  Tails I lose. 

No thanks.

Now I’m going to tell you what Vox left out…  and I suspect he did so deliberately.  I mean… honestly we’re talking about Vox Day here.  The man has been known to walk around with a Mises Institute hat over his Mohawk.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Rothbard quotes occasionally appear in his stool.  Do you really believe he doesn’t know what everyone from Bastiat to Hayek said about money?  Vox knows damned well that the definition I used for money was straight from Mises.  I can throw Rothbard and Mises quotes at you all day that back up my insistence that money completes a transaction...  and so can Vox.

Making matters somewhat more frustrating… Vox quotes Salerno.   Let’s see what Mr Salerno said about credit that Vox has conveniently omitted.

Credit cards [should] not [be] counted as part of the [money supply] because use of a credit card in the purchase of a good does not fully discharge the debt created in the transaction. Instead, it gives rise to a second credit transaction that involves present and future monetary payments. Thus the issuer of the credit card or lender is now bound to pay the seller of the good immediately with money on behalf of the card-holder or borrower. The latter, in turn, is obliged to make a monetary repayment of the loan to the issuer at the end of the month or at a later date, at which time the transaction is finally completed.

I'm just gonna let that sink in for a bit here...

Ya got it?  I can wait...    read it again if you have to.

Note that no where in either of Vox’s proposed definitions do we find this critical factor.  Turgot omits it.  Law omits it.  Mises, Rothbard, Salerno.. and pretty much every other Austrian has agreed that the key factor of money is the fact that it completes a transaction.  Completing a transaction is the one thing that money does, that nothing else does.

In the interest of charity and goodwill… I will suggest that Turgot’s characteristics of money are all fine with me… provided that we remember that the value supposedly stored by the money is subjective, and, we add the requirement that I have hither-to beaten into the ground.  It must serve to complete the transaction.  Law on the other hand can pucker up and kiss my whole ass. 

So given my Austrian definition of money… what IS the bloody money supply?  Ludwig Von Mises said it was “Money + Money Substitutes”.    HA HA! Says you.  Vox has you!  Money Substitutes!  That’s credit!


Since we’re talking Austrian Economics we must look at what characteristics Austrians use to determine what is or is not a money substitute.  Here are the characteristics…  Per…  Well… Everyone that matters:

       Immediately Convertible.
       It must have recognizable par value claims with standard money

So… given those once again… I can see the wheels turning from here… you’re thinking Vox has me.  Credit Cards are money substitutes!  Right?  After all one could argue that they are even more readily convertible than money in checking and savings accounts.  They are certainly recognized as par value claims with standard money.

Mr Salerno already explained why we shouldn’t count them… and I would add a couple of points…  One… I don’t think Vox wants to go down this road given that average credit card debt is up 5% from November of 2011 to December of 2012. (credit to josh for pointing out that I left out the word "average" in the first post.  Total credit card debt is down due to default.) That doesn’t much help his case.  On top of that…The point is that credit card money didn’t exist before that purchase, or it only existed in some form that isn’t even remotely related to actual money and had to be converted into money in order to become available for use.  That is to say, some bank had to sell something to get the money.  Hell if we're going down that road we may as well call cars money, because you can sell them, get money, then use the money to buy something. If we do this... we've basically just mentally masturbated ourselves into oblivion. That's never good.  Ask Friedrich Nietzsche.

Now... Compare money available on the credit card to money in a savings account… which at some point… was either actual cash, or was in some checking account somewhere.  The depositor still owns the money and has effectively unlimited access to the money.  Legally there are things banks can do to limit the access but in practical terms it doesn't actually happen.  Still because of those limits at least one Austrian economist, Frank Shostakargues that even money in savings accounts isn't in the money supply.

Look...  Given that we can debate the merit of money in savings accounts don’t you suppose it’s a bit daft to ask us then if we think a derivative is money?  We can't agree that cash you stick in a savings account is money... but you want to ask us if the money someone may think your house may be worth if you maybe possibly sold it... is?  

So once the credit card is used… the money for the purchase price then goes into a checking account of some seller somewhere… and that money is now in the money supply.  Before that it was not.  I want to make sure we're clear on this.  The principle of loan...  the money the bank uses for the purchase... or the proceeds the bank gives the borrower...  that money counts in the money supply.  The corresponding debt does not.  That debt is nothing more than a banker's bet that he will get paid.  Its accounts receivable .. no different than the accounts receivable of any other business.

Beyond all of this I will attempt to take one tiny baby step forward.  What is in the money supply?  M2 is close but it negates some very important factors.  Instead I personally prefer Micheal Pollaro’s TMS1 and TMS2 metrics.

 Figure 1

These metrics can be tracked here.   I should note that none of these are perfect... and we can debate at length about what should or should not be included in them.  I prefer TMS2... but if you want to go with M2... that's fine with me.

M3 however... is right out.  After all... M3's additions are entirely credit transactions.  Its like a giant banker circle jerk at The Casino of the Damned.  No way.

I do believe when you view the various charts provided you will agree that deflation would look quite a bit different.  What we see here is a massive increase of supply across the board. 

As such… I suppose I will pose a question to Vox.

True of False:  Lots of things store value.  Lots of things can be used to estimate value. Lots of things can be employed to aid in an exchange.   Money does all of those things.  But money is the only thing that does all of those things, and completes an exchange without creating a need for another transaction.


foxmarks said...

“Compare money available on the credit card to money in a savings account… which at some point… was either actual cash, or was in some checking account somewhere.”

If I take an advance, my checking balance goes up without using cash or depleting anyone else’s checking balance.

Nate said...

Yes. and that increase is reflected in M2... and therefore the money supply.

foxmarks said...

The banker who made the advance then takes my promise to pay (his betting slip) to a car lot and trades it for a used Buick. Now the car lot has the right to collect from me, my bank balance and the bankers bank balance are untouched, but a Buick changed hands. Isn’t the note that bought the Buick money?

Nate said...


The transaction isn't complete. Its no different than saying that because you wrote a check for something and took the goods home... the check is money.

It isn't.

foxmarks said...

Then the transaction could remain incomplete for years or decades. The note could be used to initiate a theoretically infinite number of exchanges. The Buick gets traded for a shed, which gets traded for a skid-loader, which gets traded for X hours of bookkeeping service, which gets traded for a cow…My money got velocity…

All that economic activity happens without using M2 money, and without the first transaction ever closing.

The Buick ends up scrapped before I ever use my checking balance to extinguish the note (which has remained in the hands of the auto lot the whole time).

How do we close all the subsidiary transactions?

foxmarks said...

I missed a step. I can ask about two cases.

One where the note never changes hands, and another, where the note moves with every exchange and I end up paying the cowherd to extinguish my debt.

Nate said...

Again... if the note continually changes hands then the note itself is perceived to have subjective value, and is therefore money.

In fact that is what cash in our system actually is. Which you already know.

Now given the fact that I already said the cash in our system is money... why bother asking?

If the transaction is considered complete... its money.

Salt said...

Completing a transaction is the one thing that money does, that nothing else does.

Credit cards, for example, do eventually settle the transaction with DEBT in most instances being the salient point. The BUYER and SELLER are fulfilled, the Credit Card Co. on the hook for the loan.

Maybe instead of asking what is money we need ask, what is debt?

foxmarks said...

And if the note never changes hands, it is just a chain of barter.

But if the note moves, the original transaction is untouched and incomplete. Checking balances are untouched, yet Buicks and cows change hands.

So M2 went up once, but since the transaction was debt-based and incomplete, no money was involved. But my checking balance increased to increase M2. The note functions as money, but is not money, but counts as money in M2.

I keep trying to keep it micro, and the note which functions as money can complete multiple transactions all inside the incomplete transaction which created it. If I had not made the credit card advance in the first place, all the interior transactions may not have happened. Without debt there would be less activity.

There seems to be some distinction which you believe is essential and that I cannot see. This condition of completing a transaction seems purely abstract and unnecessary.

If I can create a checking balance out of thin air by promising to pay in the future, whether or not that is encompassed in M2 or some other measure, I used debt to create money. Since I can spend my checking balance, and my banker can spend my promise, the exchangeable value is double my promise. Debt created money, and is also money.

Nate said...

"If I can create a checking balance out of thin air by promising to pay in the future, whether or not that is encompassed in M2 or some other measure, I used debt to create money. "

You can't do that. Only special people can do that. We call them banks.

That is how new money gets injected into the system. or at least... that's one way.

The distinction is not some abstract thing... its one that some very smart people noticed a long time ago. Exchanges boil down to one thing that actually moves around... and the thing that moves around in the exchages is money.

The things that facilitate the moving are not money.

Again... think of your hands. Are your hands money? No. but your hands move the gold coins across the counter to the seller.

The coins are the money. Your hands would be like the IOU.

But what money actually IS and what we count in the money supply are two different things.

foxmarks said...

But what money actually IS and what we count in the money supply are two different things.

Good. Your insistence on micro is at odds with references to M2. We have common ground upon which to build my understanding of your viewpoint.

Only special people can do that.

At the micro scale, are there banks? If I have a decent reputation in my village, I can issue a promise of future work/favors in exchange for a hamburger today. Both my promise and the hamburger I got can be used in transactions immediately.


The thing that moves around need have no certain shape or substance. We have agreed that a cow, a gold nugget, or my promise to wash your windows can all be money. “Abstract” was the wrong word. I used to know a guy who liked to say money was a hypothetical construct. It isn’t the stuff, the physical atoms or pretty pictures that matter, but just that all parties consider the transaction complete. Money is a subjective value at a point in time, which may be attached to some object.

I lead myself to say things that sound like what you have written. Next, I have to figure out how this ephemeral feeling of satisfaction/completion can be tied to either inflation or deflation.

It seems that you disregard the “store of value” and “unit of account” properties of mainstream economists’ money. I suppose there’s really no way to store subjective value.

We’ll have to connect what money IS to what we consider the money supply.

Thank you.

Nate said...


Have you considered the benefits of bourbon? its entirely possible that it could aid in your understanding of my point.

In so much as... you're creating artificial obstacles where obstacles do not otherwise exits.

For example... its not that I disregard various characteristics that Turgot used to describe money. Its just that I noted that all kinds of things share those same characteristics. Those things are not money. To be money... there is another requirement... and only money meets it.

foxmarks said...

Thanks for the suggestion, although I lean toward clear liquors. And I gave them all up for my version of Lent, anyway. :-)

So there’s a thing that only money can do. Is that the only necessary and sufficient characteristic of money?

Vox’s implied requirement about the definition of money is not so important to me. At least not in a dialogue between friendlies. I see why we need to establish a common ground for discussion. But if inflation vs. deflation depends entirely on the definition of money, it isn’t that useful to me in meatspace.

I enjoy the theoretical argument, but really I am looking for insights on whether I should turn my home equity into precious metals or pay off my mortgage with the metal I have.

Nate said...

Mate... neither Vox.. nor I.. believe strongly in our opinions enough to give you that kind of advice.

I am a die-hard hyper inflationist and have been since the word go. I have uniformly told people to buy gold.

No way would I tell you to borrow money to buy gold.

No way.

mmaier2112 said...

A few questions:

1) What information are the folks in charge using to make their decisions with our actual money? What is THEIR stance on this debate?

2) Does it matter what money is if the Powers That Be act on a different definition?

Toby Temple said...

I've been looking for that information on for some time now.

Thanks, Nate.

tz said...

Excellent comeback.

Here is one factor though. The money used to pay by credit card has to be somewhere, it isn't created ex-nihilo by charging on the credit card.

If there is a pool of dollars to make good up to my credit limit, and I charge $100, that pool is $100 smaller (literally at the same instant) while at the same time a $100 IOU is added to a corresponding pool. Is the first pool part of the money supply?

You are correct that money substitutes mean something like bank notes, mzm, not credit.

But using (drawing down) a line of credit means real dollars are coming from somewhere. If those dry up, the velocity drops - GDP = PQ = MV. Is money that does not or can't circulate part of the money supply? E.g. a Spanish ship with gold on the bottom on the ocean.

tz said...

Put differently, my charge means $100 goes from a pool of real money at the card issuer to the account of the vendor. A second part is an IOU is created between me and the issuer.

If I went to an ATM and got cash first it would be the same two discrete transactions.

The IOU will need to be paid back with real money (maybe from another pool in a balance transfer), or it will be defaulted on.

Defaults dry up the pools of real money since the big daisy chain also involves payments and withdraws of principal and interest.

Taking $100 out of a "bank" takes $1000 out of the daisy chain. That might not be much "money", but it needs real money at the base.

(Denninger's "Leverage" is a good compliment to RGD)

Nate said...

Great questions TZ... and I agree... that ideally... that is how credit cards would work.

Unfortunately its NOT how they work. The pool of money the credit card charges come from is created and maintained through a certifiably insane combination of leverage and one thing that gets over looked.

Check kiting.

Ever noticed that banks have all of these time limits on what deposits go where when... and what withdraws get counted when? Its so literally... they can kite the money into existence.

Its illegal if you and I do it. If they do it... its just part of the system.

Josh said...

Is money that does not or can't circulate part of the money supply? 

No. That's why, despite the huge increase in the base money supply, you haven't seen a correspondingly huge increase in prices.

Nate said...

Come now TZ... our bag of cats must be closely guarded for now.

Be patient.

Peter Garstig said...

My Frame, thy frame.

Anyway, good refute. I bet Vox is going to argue that your definition of money is correct, but irrelevant.

A Question though: when you say that money completes a transaction, do you mean that no party of the transaction is legally bound to any future transaction?

If all these debts default (or a big part), or if these mountains of bets crumble down, will this affect the money supply as you just defined it?

foxmarks said...

I’m not looking for advice, just insights to feed back into my decision loops.

Now that people have brought in explicitly the concept of leverage, it probably makes this inflation-deflation argument even more recreational (and less practical) for me.

It’s funny how people (nobody in particular) can talk about price, but not understand subjective value. I like to rant about how anything denominated in dollars is not to be trusted. Tell me about tons, hours, and gallons. Money doesn’t do anything other than mediate…

tz said...

I would agree that insofar as it is a pinwheel (a series of kited checks), it isn't money, at least in what you and Vox' two definitions mean. It the three of us each write million dollar cheks to each other, the money supply didn't go up, nor really velocity (ok, I now owe and have a receivable of $1M).

The difficulty is the houses were financed and credit cards and cars and such are financed by the vortex created by the pinwheel. Somewhere amongst things are entities that will need or want to be paid back in real money. Cash in their bets, or just their post-dated checks (bouncing checks is illegal, but it and a promissary note are promises there will be repayment). Interest earned on the deposit of the kited check might be real money.

The destruction of the pinwheel may destroy velocity and real money.

Nate said...

Peter.. I would like to answer that... but I fear I am going to have to wait for Vox to ask.

Peter Garstig said...

I understand.

Peter Garstig said...

...for both questions asked.

Nate said...

That's the trouble with the banking system TZ... you have the pinwheel interacting with the real world in such a way that is incredibly dangerous.

Vox can certainly employ the pin wheel to feed his case... but given that I brought it up... well... Obviously I would be taken off guard if he does.

allyn71 said...


What do you consider the completion of a transaction?

I have assumed the transfer of ownership but that might not be what you consider the completion of the transaction.


You are right that for practical purposes this is a theoretical debate that has limited utility in the "Real World". Whether Nate is right and hyperinflation occurs and there is so much money that it has no value or Vox is right and deflation occurs to the point there is no money available the preparations and responses are pretty much the same either way.

Prepare yourself and family, build networks, add skills.

foxmarks said...

allyn71, I’m scheming for a way to have a bigger pile of chips in the world after the collapse. Take my outlook like a stock trader with high risk tolerance, not like the average person trying to hang on.

Say it goes hyperinflation. Whatever debt I take on is likely to be rendered insignificant, and possibly even cancelled. But the gold I buy today will still be valuable in the next America. I come out way ahead if Nate is right and I bet that way.

I haven’t figured out how to make a big killing if Vox is right. I don’t know how to bet deflation.

So, in a sense, I hope Nate persuades me. It would be more fun.

Jack Amok said...

So, just checking, but once we get past the undercard fighting about the definition of money, what will the main event Inflation/Deflation battle use for the definition of inflation?

Price in US Dollars?

Jack Amok said...

I haven’t figured out how to make a big killing if Vox is right. I don’t know how to bet deflation.

If deflation happens, then Dollars are more valuable, assuming you can hang onto them. Or maybe gold is too. Or Real Estate. Productive capacity most certainly will be.

Thing is, if deflation happens, it will be because a massive wave of defaults erase a ton of debt, which erases a ton of credit, which means people won't be bidding up prices with credit.

So while in theory the price of stuff you have, like gold or real estate, would decline making it seem like you're loosing money, the reality is everything else is also declining in price, perhaps faster than your gold or real estate. So those things may rise in relative value compared to other stuff.

Or they may fall. Depends on what people value after the train wreck.

Your dollars may not even be valuable, even though in theory deflation means they are increasing in value, because in that sort of environment, it's possible no one may want them. Confederate Dollars, right? If the issuing authority loses the confidence of the public, their notes lose all value.

Which complicates the hell out of Nate and Vox's debate.

foxmarks said...

Deflation basically gives me the same bet as selling short. Without using leverage, my max profit is the amount I bet. That’s a double, a 100% gain.

Inflation, if I bet it right, lets me play like a junior bankster, having my bad debt erased and my wealth preserved in commodities and real property. I can’t even calculate my percentage gain if my original bet is forgiven.

I wouldn’t even need to collect any underpants…

tz said...

precious metals (remember platinum and palladium) in a safe deposit box in a canadian bank. IIRC, Alberta doesn't charge GST (sales/VAT) on precious metals.

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