Wednesday, December 08, 2010

The Coming Doom

So.. you think housing prices have bottomed out? Not even close. Look... and despair.

So what are we looking at? The 100 line is is the 100 year average, inflation adjusted. So its the same house... tracking the price over time.

Now note the spike in the 1890s and the dip following it. Now look at the spike starting in 1998. We must conclude that not only will the price drop down to the 100 line. We must conclude it will drop far far below it... in proportionality to the spike.

Now... I believe we will see another spike before the big dip... but the dip will still come. So if you're buying right now... my advice is simple.
Find out what the peak value of the property was over the last 10 years... and pay no more than half of it. Ideally.. you should pay a third of it.