It's funny really. Sometimes it seems like JAC and I run the same blog. For the most part we see things eye-to-eye. We agree on the methodology... but the conclusions ultimately drawn are drastically different.
Take this Lizard Queen deal. JAC boasts:
But don't let me stop y'all from gettin' all a-titter and swooning with fear at the certainty of Queen Lizard the First, by all means carry on with your fun. Drama Queens.
His premise of course is that the Lizard Queen is un-electible. He figures for every moron who'll vote for her, 2 or 3 will vote against her.
If she'd run in '04 this would've been true. But it's '08. Hillary's win has nothing to do with her, and everything to do with who the Republicans send up the hill against her. If they send a real conservative, she'll go down in the worst beating since 1984. It would be really ugly.
But they won't. The lesson will not be learned this November.
We're going to have a Republican Primary of Guiliani, Pataki, and Bloomberg. We may get another dose of McCain. If Tancredo makes much more noise they're gonna throw him jail.
Ultimately JAC still believes that the people have the final say. He believes in local elections Hillary will lose... and all elections are local. This is what happens when you've never lived in a state like Georgia, or California, where a small but hugely populated urban area controls the whole state. California elections aren't local. Well... they are... but only if you live in San Fransisco or LA.
I advise you to think of it in terms of states... because that's how its decided. What state will Hilary win that Kerry didn't?
Ohio. New Mexico.
What state that Kerry won, will Hillary lose?
Do the math.