Saturday, May 03, 2008

Is It Big Brown's Day?

I don't know what to make of it... the word Freak has been thrown around alot... and well... when you do what no one else has done... like win the Florida Derby from gate 12... it's an accurate application.

But I was watching his trainer Rick Dutrow during the gate selection... when it was his turn.... he walked up to the board with this grin on his face... like he knew something the rest of 'em didn't. He hung the his number on Gate 20... then he paused to hear the boos. And there was that smile again...

Let me tell you what I think is gonna happen...

Those gates are gonna open and all hell is gonna break loose... but its all going to be happening inside of Big Brown. He has the speed to open it up... eat more ground on the outside... and find his way to the first turn near the front.

He'll be in the small lead group at turn 1... and that's when a lot of folks will start thinking... aww hell...

By 7/8ths a bunch of horses will be fading... and that's gonna cost someone a chance at the end. A good horse always gets stuck behind a fader... it happens every year. It won't happen to Big Brown though... because he will have made his own way around the outside while everyone else has been slowed down by the rodeo inside. He'll be up front.

We have the makings for a blow out people.

I'm not saying its going to happen... but the conditions are right. You have The Freak on the outside that wants to be a front runner... you have a big field with some good horses in unfavorable gates. This horse runs a pissed off race. He runs angry. People talk about his feet... but this horse just doesn't care. He may kill himself... but he's gonna run like hell.

Ya know what?

Adrianos may find a way to win this whole thing... The Derby Gods may look down on Dutrow and smite him for his cocksure ways and past transgressions.


Or The Freak may take a clean run around the whole pack... take the lead within a few dozen yard of the gate... stretch it out at turn 2... and blow the whole thing wide open down the back stretch... and throw an extra kick in right after turn 4... just to make a point.

Big Brown is the only horse in the field that could either be a complete non-factor... or... he could win by a dozen lengths.

I ain't no horse man... and I don't mean to pretend to be. I'm just a guy that loves watching horse racing... and I've seen a bunch this year. When it comes down to it... throw out all the other crap.. and what you have is a race. Well... I say go with the best horse in the field.

The man that's raced 'em both says Big Brown is better than Fusiachi Pegasus.

Well... there ain't another horse out there today that's in that class... unless Adriano or Big Truck have been holding a lot back.

Nah... I don't see it.

Big Brown just might dominate today. Then the real race is gonna take place at Belmont... when War Pass has finally healed up and he gets his chance against the Freak.

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