Saturday, May 06, 2006

Derby Prediction

Y'all know I love horse racin' and I love the Derby most of all. So how does it look this year?

Lawyer Ron and Barbaro are the best horses in the field. They are workin' the best this week to. The best horse don't always win the Derby though. Most of these horses have been racing in 5 and 6 horse fields, and hardly any of them have run a mile and a quarter.

Experience could be an issue... this is a 20 horse field. The favorite, Brother Derek, hasn't raced against 20 horses in his last three starts combined. On the other side... You have Barbaro who loves the big crowds.

When I look over this field I see the a really intriguing race. Every horse has a plus, and ever horse has a flaw. How to call it?

If you like to go with the Best Horse... better go with Brother Derek. I don't see it though.

If you like the late closers... I would point you to AP Warrior, who almost destroyed Brother Derek at a mile and a sixteenth... or Steppenwolfer who's a late late breaker, and who's been running down Lawyer Ron all over Arkansas. The extra distance could be just what they need.

If you're a speed guy its hard to pick against Baffert's Sinister Minister. He has the best speed numbers in the field. Some will say there is to much speed here for him to win... but they said the same thing about War Emblem.


I like big, strong, ballsy horses. I don't like this little half bird things they are breedin' now. Barbaro stands like a princes and walks like a whore. He's big... he's got a real bad attitude and the racing snobs have blown him off. Oh... and he's 5 for 5. He's never lost. Now... he is coming off a long layoff... but with his fight, and the way he loves to put on a show for a big crowd, I expect him to throw some smoke.

1. Barbaro
2. A.P. Warrior
3. Sweetnorthersaint

But... this is the Derby. Don't be suprised to be suprised.

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