Sunday, September 12, 2004

Why We Will Win

Any type of prediction is tricky. Considering something as complex as the outcome of a citizen revolt in the United States however, by any standard, would have to be one of the most difficult things anyone could prognosticate. Before I offer my thoughts, let me start off with some basic facts that I used to build my case.

The Givens:
1) The citizens of the United States are the most well armed in the world.
2) 100,000,000 people in the United States own firearms. That's over 1 out of every 3 citizens.
3) The average gun owner owns 3 guns.
4) At a time of great need, the United States Military can activate 500,000 troops, most of which would be reservists.
5) The United States Military is the most powerful modern military in the world.
6) Modern Military tactics still have no answer for large scale guerilla warfare.
7) The public will not revolt in good economic times
8) Even in poor economic times, a catalyst of some form is needed.

You must not begin by considering America as it stands today. You must think of what type of circumstances would cause a revolt. After all, you don't go looking for tornados in the middle of winter. A revolt is possible in good times, for example, if the government suddenly decided to go door to door and confiscate all guns. Then you'd see a revolt in a heartbeat, but that's just not going to happen. The government is not that stupid.

So imagine now, an America with an unemployment rate of say... 15%... or to be more realistic... 30%, and on top of that, inflation has eaten away everything they own. Now you have a pissed off population. We've had these types of situations before though, and we had no rebellion... so we need someting else too. We need some event that is offensive to a large number of citizens. Example: Rodney King verdict in LA.

Let's say that the catalyst, whatever it is, happens. We'll use conservative estimates and say that 1% to 3% of all armed citizens decide it's time to throw down.


Over night, all over the country, chaos reigns. Government buildings are blowing up. Trains are derailing. There are widespread power outages. People are getting shot on the way to work. Armories and Military depots are blown to hell. Government employees, senators, congressmen, and mayors are all turning up dead.

How would the country react? The news would initally report that there were widespread terrorist attacks. Of course, anyone with a brain would realize that no organization in the world could do that much damage in that little time, over that huge an area. Within a couple days, martial law would be declared, but the attacks wouldn't stop. In fact, the presence of armed US troops on our streets would only lend sympathy to the rebels. The unavoidable accidents and abuses from such an action would fill the ranks of the Rebel "forces" with new volunteers. As the US military starts engaging the rebels, soldiers would be confronted with the fact that their enemy is their neighbor, not some arab or german, or jap. Of course there would be huge slaughters when the military would actually catch a militia or group all together. These slaughters, by their extreme nature, would lend even more sympathy... and by the first couple weeks, it wouldn't be 1% to 3% anymore. It would be approaching 5% to 10%.

At night virtually every city in America would be a war zone. D.C. would look like Kosovo. The media would still be decryin the terrorists in the homeland, but the propaganda war would be starting to turn. By now the rebels are getting their message out.

US Military Might:

This is guerilla war, and history has proven that there is no answer for these tactics. There is no target to strike. There is no land to hold. There is no organization to defeat. It will be faceless. There will be nothing for the military to focus on. The Navy will be useless. The Airforce will be useless. Only the most of elite of the special forces would be enjoying any type of success. Moral would be at an all time low. Remember that at any given time, much of all US forces are overseas, and they simply couldn't get them home in time to make much difference.

An Army of One:
Look around you. How much damage could you do, if you just decided to do it? What do you know? What have you seen? Could you, for example, go out and destroy some train tracks in the middle of town? What would a frieght train derailing at rush hour do to a town? We can do anything. Tomarrow... while you are out and about... think about what sort of disruptions you could cause if you so chose. This is an eye opening exercize. You realize how fragile society really is.

Acting all on your own, you can sow chaos. Two idiots with a van and a $200.00 weapon terrorized 3 states for weeks. Hell... They couldn't even shoot. But... What if they could shoot? What if they weren't shooting from 50 yards away? What if it was 500 yards away? And what if they weren't hitting 1 person every couple days? What if it was 2 or 3 every day? What if there weren't just 2 of them? What if there were 50? or 100? All over the country? What if there were 1,000? 10,000?Think of the havok. And what could the US military do to stop it? The only way to deal with it is to hunt down every individual involved. It simply cannot be done. No military has ever been able to defeat these tactics.

Be your own Cell. Do your own thing.

The End:

This will go on until the state governments decide that the feds can't handle the situation, and declare the federal government disolved. When it's all said and done there would be somewhere between 300,000 and 600,000 casualties, most of which would be collateral damage. The only people who will truely benefit from this conflict will be the undertakers and the construction companies. The Catalyst will have been reversed, and things will peter out pretty quickly. The whole sordid affair could take weeks, or months,but likely will not take longer.

Numbers and Tactics make this a no win situation for the US government. You simply cannot defeat an army of that size using those tactics.

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